National Numbers; Washington Goes Red?

SurveyUSA has just finished interviewing 30,000 people around the country — 600 from each state — to get a sense of where people are going to vote in the general election come November. In the general, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House; as of today, it is predicted that should Hillary Clinton win the nomination, she will beat McCain 276 to 262, Barack Obama leads McCain 280 to 258.

The state-by-state breakdown is where things get interesting. According to Wikipedia — which is never wrong — the 14 swing states to watch in this election are New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon.

In the head-to-head match-ups the survey shows that Clinton would carry seven of those swing states (Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Florida, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin and New Mexico), whereas Obama would carry ten (New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon).

New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio are on both lists. Look at the differences. Clinton gets Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Florida; Obama takes New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon. The final numbers only have Obama up an additional four electoral votes with three extra states. Of course, this is because Clinton is predicted to carry the bigger ones, the electoral-rich.

If we’ve learned anything from this election so far it is that nobody cares about Florida. There’s a lot of talk now about seating their delegates from the primary or else they will be so angry they’ll have no choice but to follow Charlie Crist and vote Republican. Well, according to SurveyUSA, the Democrats don’t need Florida to win if Obama is the nominee.

Other interesting things to watch: The Survey only puts Clinton above McCain 47% to 46% in Pennsylvania. That state could easily slide to the red, no matter who the nominee is. Also, a quick look at the colored maps highlights one peculiar thing: Washington. Washington is generally considered to be a democratic state and the match-up of McCain v. Barry shows a more than comfortable margin, 52% to 38%. If Clinton goes up against McCain, however, the state suddenly swings to the red at 46% to 44%.

• Originally published: Texas Monthly 2008.03.06