Nicholas B. Jackson

SurveyUSA takes the last stab at predicting Ohio’s primary. The last poll for the Buckeye State surveyed 2,000 voters, which is considerably more than the majority of primary polls (we typically see numbers in the 700 to 800 range). The results put Clinton at 54% and Obama at 44%.

The pollsters have declared that any momentum Obama had picked up has now come to a halt; Clinton converted voters focused on health care, and voters in the greater Cincinnati and Dayton areas.

Background from SurveyUSA polls:
Three weeks ago: Clinton +17
Two weeks ago: Clinton +9
One week ago: Clinton +6

Clinton led by 13 percentage points in voters that had already cast their ballots in the early primary.

According to the Washington Post, Mark Penn “asserted today that an ad that raised the specter of a national security crisis and questioned Senator Barack Obama’s (Ill.) readiness to handle such an event has fundamentally altered the shape of the race heading into tomorrow’s votes in Ohio and Texas.”

The ad that Penn is referring to is, of course, the ‘Phone Ringing at 3 a.m.’ ad which began airing in the two critical states on Friday. Like SurveyUSA, Penn that this weekend has signaled a “change in momentum.”

• Originally published: Texas Monthly 2008.03.03