10:49 With that, I’m putting this live-blog to bed and grabbing some popcorn to watch the rest of a speech I’ve already heard on TV a dozen times, seen live once and would love to hear over and over again. Expect final numbers tomorrow on the March 4th primaries and some next-day commentary from our other regular Poll Dancing bloggers.
10:42 Michelle and Barry are on now and she has out-dressed him. Sorry, I’m still in an Academy Award mood. He begins his speech by noting that we may not know the final results in Texas — hello, doesn’t he read Poll Dancing? — until the morning, but, either way, he has just about the same delegate lead that he had this morning going into these March 4th primaries. Obama is giving his speech tonight in San Antonio, only about an hour from Austin where he held a huge outdoor rally a week and a half ago. He is combining that Austin speech — the usual one — with the New Hampshire concession speech — the famous “Yes, We Can” one — to stir up the crowd.
More blatantly than Clinton, Obama is pointing out the differences between himself and our now definite Republican nominee.
10:38 I’ve scooped CNN repeatedly tonight and I’m going to project a win for Obama right now in Texas. 51% of the precincts are reporting and 1.9 million votes have been counted. However, nearly all of the rural areas are done counting and the major cities are still getting warmed up. As the Harris county numbers continue to come in, they will, I project, but Obama on top. And we’re not even taking into consideration the caucuses yet. Two victories for each tonight but Obama’s delegate lead will grow even larger.
10:33 For some reason, the CNN map online has gone crazy. It has added Chris Dodd back into the race and says he is currently leading in Brooks county in southern Texas. I guess Hillary is right; anything is possible.
10:29 Thank you, thank you, thank you. This is turning into a long-winded Oscar speech. Turn on the music. Whatever happened to being against speech-ifying? “I want to end by sharing with you a message that I got late last month … ‘my two daughters are two and four and they cheer for you at every speech they’ve seen. I want them to know that anything is possible.’ I say to them keep on watching, together we’re going to make history. To those little girls I say, this is America and we do believe you can be anything you want to be and we want our sons and daughters to dream.”
10:26 The crowd refuses to let her say anything without jumping on with her. She couldn’t even say hillaryclinton.com without everyone shouting it back at her. With the opener out of the way, Clinton is going back to her stump speech. Anti-speeches, pro-solutions. She elicits a boo from the crowd at the mention of George W. And she lets it be known that she thinks we’re ready for, you know, a good president.
“I think we’re ready to declare energy independence and create millions of jobs. We’re ready to reach out to our allies and … we’re ready to end the war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan. And we’re past ready to serve our veterans with the devotion that they served us. Protecting America is the first and most urgent duty of the president.” She just referred to the 3 a.m. phone ringing ad. How much create do we give that for her win?
10:18 This one is for everyone who works hard but never gives up. Word. “You know what they say: As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Well, this nation is coming back and so is this campaign. The people from Ohio have said it loudly and clearly: ‘We’re going on, we’re going strong and we’re going all the way!’”
10:16 Clinton is on the stage somewhere; her trademark red suit is like camo in all of the confetti spilling from the ceiling. She looks good and the crowd is going crazy. “Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!” I’m still waiting for my favorite: “H-I. H-I-L. H-I-L-L-A-R-Y. Hillary! Hillary! Hillary for liberty!”
10:15 David Gergen: “Her own fighting spirit made a big, big difference for her. I think they did go negative and it worked. He’s [Obama] got to go on the offense. He’s got to throw a punch.”
10:09 From Marc Ambinder at The Atlantic:
On a Clinton campaign conference call to discuss reports of Obama-inspired voting irregularities in Texas, the second question belonged to Bob Bauer.
“Repeat that?” asked an incredulous — and bemused — Hoard Wolfson, Clinton’s communications director.
Bob Bauer, Barack Obama’s chief counsel.
“How is this any different than the series of complaints registered against every caucus that you lose?”
10:06 How concerned should Senator Obama be? Lou Dobbs asks. “This race is still far from over. Obama will maintain the lead in pledged delegates and will continue to have resources. But he must begin to answer some of these charged from Senator Clinton.”
10:02 The Clinton campaign, Candy reports, thinks that they have reclaimed their base. “For Ohio, they feel she has put together that same coalition that had her winning in New Hampshire and elsewhere. The race goes on, but the night belongs to Hillary Clinton … at least so far.” She is on her way to give her speech. This time, Obama won’t be interrupting her.
10:00 “Regardless of what happens in Texas, she is going to go ahead and move on. This is a campaign that knows … it may come down to those superdelegates. They do believe that Barack Obama no longer has the momentum,” says my girl Candy. “A win is a win is a win and she’s won Ohio.”
9:56 CNN projects that Clinton will win Ohio. That’s her second state tonight; she won Rhode Island earlier. Ohio, obviously, a huge victory. A speech is expected soon. “Restoring her viability as a potential Democratic nominee,” says Wolf.
9:54 “If you’re Senator Clinton you’re thinking, ‘Wow, I’m running up good numbers across the state.’” Clinton has taken the lead in Texas for the first time and is up about 10,000 votes with 1.5 million counted.
9:44 600 votes apart.
9:43 With 1.4 million votes counted in Texas, Obama is ahead by 1,500. Incredible. No other word for it. Cooper is saying now what I’ve been saying all week: both sides are going to spin Texas to claim victory tonight. It’ll be interesting, though, to see how they start that spin tonight with speeches that have to come in long before we’re done counting the numbers.
9:32 “Can the big margins that she’s winning in the more rural areas offset the numbers that he is winning in Houston and Dallas?”
9:31 With 19% of the precincts in Texas reporting, and over 1.3 million votes counted, Obama and Clinton are separated by only 8,000 votes. “If you look at this map, it looks like Clinton is winning everywhere, but Obama is winning where the people are.”
9:28 John King is working his magic, explaining why the vote is probably a lot closer than it looks like in Ohio. With 40% of the precincts reporting, Clinton takes the early lead 57% to Obama’s 41%. However, 0% of the precincts are reporting in the counties that hold Cincinnati and Cleveland. “You’re encouraged if you’re in the Clinton campaign, but you’re a bit nervous,” says King.
9:19 In Texas, according to the exit polls on CNN, voters who decided in the last three days voted overwhelmingly for Clinton — 61% to Obama’s 38%. Republicans and Independents voted for Obama 53% and 52%, respectively. Here come the race numbers: Latino voters (63% for Clinton, 35% for Obama), White voters (55% for Clinton, 44% for Obama), African American voters (89% for Obama, 11% for Clinton).
9:15 According to the New York Times, Obama called McCain shortly before McCain took the stage to give his victory speech in Dallas. “He congratulated him on the campaign he’s run and said he looked forward to running against him in the fall. No word yet on what was said or whether Mrs. Clinton has called.”
9:05 At 1:15 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow President Bush will be receiving John McCain at the White House.
9:03 He ends rather ominously: “Fight with me…. The contest begins tonight.” Oh, not the end. “Like all campaigns it will have its ups and downs but we will fight every minute of every day to make certain we have a government that is as capable, wise and decent as the country it serves. That is my responsibility and I won’t let you down. Thank you and God bless you. And God bless America.”
8:57 McCain calls to stabilize the entire Middle East. The next president must lead an effort to restructure our military, our intelligence and our security to attack Islamic extremism, he says. “We will campaign to strengthen job growth in America by helping businesses to become more competitive with lower taxes and less regulation.”
8:48 It’s John and Cindy McCain time. Campaign staffers have installed a big 1,191 sign to represent the number of delegates McCain surpassed today to clinch the nomination. Dana Bash told us earlier that there are also balloons suspended from the ceiling ready to fall and a confetti machine. Thirty seconds into McCain’s victory speech I can see why; a shot of confetti in the eye will keep his supporters awake long enough to make it through this. McCain is obviously reading his speech off of a teleprompter placed somewhere over the viewer’s right shoulder. He’s trying to trick me by shaking his head every other minute but I’m not fooled. “We have won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility and a great sense of responsibility that I will be the Republican nominee….”
8:45 What have the candidates done wrong over the last week or so? The best political team on television’s Obama supporter says NAFTA. The Clinton supporter dodges the question. He somehow turned this around into what she’s been doing correctly. Hm.
8:34 CNN projects a win by Clinton in Rhode Island; not a huge surprise. With 9% of the precints reporting right now, she is ahead 53% to 46%. Expect that lead to grow as numbers continue to come in for Providence and Kent counties.
8:32 “No miracle tonight for Mike Huckabee; the math has finally caught up,” says Wolf.
8:20 Huckabee takes the stage. And, of course, he leads with a baseball reference. How … Republican. “I want my last play at bat to be an easy one-bounce to the second baseman and they throw me out at first, but I was running as hard as I could towards the bag when they got me.” Go Huck; that about sums it up. Huckabee is reading the Travis letter from the Alamo; I’m not exactly sure how he got onto this topic but he’s been there for a while. He is comparing the battle of his campaign to that battle at the Alamo. Great; he can be President of the United Southern States of America.
8:18 I’m right. Huckabee is set to drop out tonight. Stay tuned for the speech.
8:17 25% of Hillary voters say that they could vote for McCain in a general election match-up. In the same poll, only 10% of Barack voters said they could possibly vote for McCain in a head-to-head.
8:14 Anderson Cooper has just arrived, presumably to rescue us from Wolf ’stuck-record’ Blitzer. Where does McCain go from here, he asks. I missed the answer. I imagine they talked about how fundraising will become easier; this is significant as McCain has only managed to raise — in the entirety of his campaign — about what Obama and Clinton can each raise in a month. It’s like panhandling. The Democrats in the city are likely to get more handouts than the Republicans standing next to the BBQ pit in a county with population 4. They’re talking, again, about how the pressure on Clinton to drop out will be huge if she loses either Texas or Ohio tonight.
8:06 Dana Bash at CNN is a nerd and she uses a Blackberry. Some super-secret person is messaging her right now to say that we can expect Huckabee to formally drop-out “as soon as Thursday.” CNN or the New York Times? We’ll see what happens when Huckabee speaks tonight. I think he should give his concession speech live. On Saturday night.
8:00 CNN projects that John McCain wins both Texas and the Republican nomination. They are also telling us to expect a speech/endorsement from President Bush sometime tomorrow.
7:55 Word on the street — and the internet — has it that Huckabee will be speaking sometime before 8:30 p.m. Expect a concession speech, endorsement of McCain and a few self-deprecating jokes.
7:49 A little over 800,000 votes have been counted in Texas thusfar and Obama is still leading 56% to 43%. He has huge leads in all of the major metro areas but Webb is the only border county for which we have numbers at this point and there Hillary is ahead by 56 percentage points.
7:47 With 35% of the precints reporting in Vermont, the numbers have held steady with Obama at 59% and Clinton 20 points behind at 39%. If these numbers continue to hold, as I suspect they will, we will see Obama pick up 10 delegates and Clinton, 5.
7:34 According to the Austin American-Statesman (thanks, roommate) the early voting numbers have been released for some of Texas’ biggest counties. Obama wins Harris, Dallas, Travis and Tarrant counties by 19% or more in each contest. Clinton wins Montgomery county by about 300 votes.
7:25 Per the Washington Post, the Sandusky polls are, in fact, staying open until 8:00 p.m. Central time due to flooding in the area. However, the Obama campaign is requesting a two-hour extension for the polling places in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties because they both ran out of ballots.
7:20 Exit polls for Texas, according to CNN, are showing that 64% of self-described Latino voters cast a ballot for Clinton. 83% of black voters polled expressed support for Obama.
7:11 The numbers are slowly starting to come in from Texas — most of the polls are now closed and the rest will be closing at 8:00 p.m. (maybe with the exception of El Paso? See below.) Only 65,000 votes have been counted so far and Obama leads 58% to 41%. Of course, 65,000 voters is less than 1%. More numbers coming soon.
7:05 The New York Times is saying now that the polls are staying open in Sandusky not because of the weather — as CNN said earlier — but because the turnout was so large that they ran out of ballots.
6:55 According to a reader of the New York Times’ live blogging by Katharine Seelye, the polls aren’t going to close in West Texas (El Paso) until 9:00 p.m. Central time now. Then the caucus starts. I don’t know if this has been verified yet, but the night could last even longer than originally anticipated.
6:50 With 5% of the precints reporting in Vermont Texas’ very own Ron Paul has 5% of the vote. Is that anything like getting a 400 on your SATs just for filling in the little bubbles that spell out your name?
6:45 Bill Bennett wonders if conservative talk radio asking Republicans to vote for Clinton will be responsible for a hypothetical win in Texas. Also notes that Hillary is doing much better now that Bill has been caged.
6:40 Exit polls suggest that if Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, it will be the economic issue that puts her over the top. According to CNN’s exit polls, voters concerned about the current state of the economy and their finances tended to favor Clinton.
6:31 CNN gives Ohio to McCain. The polls just closed (except those in Sandusky, apparently). 85 Republican delegates are tied to the primary and McCain is inching closer to the nomination.
6:27 The trifecta effect: The Rezko trial, the 3 a.m. phone ringing ad and NAFTA. Is this going to bring Clinton the win in Ohio? Someone also throws in SNL — has Clinton shamed the media into taking a closer look at Obama? Roland Martin says that if she doesn’t win Ohio, she is doomed. This is her core base. Without them, she doesn’t have any support.
6:18 They’ve just extended the polls in Sandusky until 8:00 p.m. Central time because of the bad weather. Everyone in Ohio: Get in your cars! and take your laptops; I’ll keep you up-to-date.
6:15 Wolf is repeatedly calling Ohio a “must-win” for Hillary. While I’m quite positive she wants to win it; I don’t think she feels it’s a must-win — at least not publicly. “No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio,” King says. Sure, I believe that. Tell me more.
6:09 Here come the Vermont exit polls. White voters, which is all of Vermont (95%), voted “overwhelmingly” for Obama. 3/4 of Vermont Democrats who said the War in Iraq was their top concern voted for Obama.
6:04 Ooh! We’ve got the exit poll crew standing off to Wolf’s left as per usual; can’t we mix something up a little bit tonight? Pantsuits for the whole CNN team? Lou Dobbs is introducing the “pithy” team — note: I will be watching CNN all night (and tuning in to various blogs). John King’s magic map is enough to keep me off of MSNBC and, shudder, Fox News.
6:00 The polls just closed and CNN is projecting Obama, McCain win Vermont. No surprises here.
5:59 Candy of CNN is watching the working class vote. And I watch anything and everything that Candy watches. If by working class she means mill workers of the Edwards variety, I just watched Couric interview a couple of them on CBS. The consensus seemed to be that nobody wants a woman president.
5:50 There are 370 delegates at stake for the Democrats tonight. Of course, they’re all divided up based on the vote so neither candidate should pull too far ahead of the other. On the Republican side, however, there are 256 delegates tied to the March 4th primaries and, with John McCain 144 shy of the necessary 1,191 going into tonight, we may see Mike Huckabee (and Ron Paul) give their concession speeches.
5:43 Numbers, numbers, numbers. Polls for Vermont will be closing at 6 p.m. Central time — that’s 17 minutes from now; get excited. After that, we have Ohio numbers coming in at 6:30 and then Texas and Rhode Island at 8 p.m.
5:35 Katie Couric is grilling Hillary Clinton on the CBS Evening News right now. “As you know, I’m a persistent interviewer,” Couric told Clinton before she rephrased her question for the third time. She wants to know what Clinton expects to happen; what is her campaign going to do as it is nearly impossible for them to win enough pledged delegates to earn the nomination.
5:32 Tune in often. I’ll be live-blogging right here all night long as the results from the primaries held today start to roll in. (It was an excuse to get out of the office a bit early and plop myself in front of the TV.)
